MCA4climate: A practical framework for planning pro-development climate policies

MCA4climate: A practical framework for planning pro-development climate policies

Assessing the effectiveness of climate change adaptation policies

This paper focuses on environmental pressures caused by climate change and their impact on marine ecosystem resilience. The authors also discuss the human impacts which increase the vulnerability and decrease the resilience of marine ecosystems. The paper provides a detailed overview of the existing 19 generic criteria across 12 climate change mitigation and adaptation domains considered under the UNEP MCA4climate initiative, along with indicator and assessment methods to evaluate climate adaptation policies. The effectiveness of these policies are assessed using indicators that provide an insight into how the policy may affect the drivers, pressures, status, impacts and responses of the social-economic-ecological system.

Solutions to cope with uncertainties (climate-related uncertainty, socio-economic uncertainty, and data uncertainty) for the economic analysis of climate policies under the MCA4climate initiative are suggested. These include:

• for climate-related uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble should be used to deal with the potential uncertainty or bias associated with a particular climate model
• regarding socio-economic uncertainty, sensitivity of the results to different socio-economic pathways should be explored
• regarding data uncertainty, if quantitative estimates for the indicators are available, the upper and lower bound of the estimates for each indicator should be specified. If the indicators are based on qualitative ranking, alternative ranking representing the possible upper and lower limits should be specified. Results that are based on these upper and lower limits should be then calculated to evaluate the sensitivity of the analysis to data uncertainty

The paper concludes by providing cross-sectoral linkages between marine ecosystem resilience and adaptation and mitigation options in sectors like agriculture and health.

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